More Famous People I Have Known (Pretty Women Edition)

Julia Roberts smiled at me. At the Upper Crust Bakery in Austin. Her megawatt smile is the reason she’s a star. That she smiled at me when she didn’t have to is the reason she’s a regular, nice person.

Karrin Allyson thinks I saved her life. Her show at Jimmy Mak’s in Portland was SRO. I was standing near the top of the steep basement stairs.  Dressing rooms at Jimmy’s are in the basement. Karrin came upstairs, stumbled, and grabbed my arm. She thanked me, and thanked me again. I guess, for not letting her fall, and for not falling down the stairs on top of her.

Nothing so personal passed between Goldie Hawn and me; the story is in how it didn’t. In 1980 I was standing in line at a taco stand on the plaza in Santa Fé, chatting with a very nice Japanese-American man who somehow looked familiar. As we bit into our tacos and said goodbye, I realized it was Pat Morita, who was then playing the cook on Happy Days. (There was, as yet, no Karate Kid.) I rejoined Hyon on the other side of the plaza, and she said, “Isn’t that Goldie Hawn?” And it was Goldie, holding toddler Kate Hudson by the hand as they strolled off down Lincoln Avenue. Hyon and I think of the baby Kate sighting whenever we see adult Kate in a movie.

Ten Commandments For Tech Companies

1. Thou shalt not screw thine early adopters. They made thou what thou art, even showing patience with thine inattention to upward compatibility. Yea, though they paid high early prices, thou hast refused them free upgrades. Now as they glance at their boxes of obsolete connectors, power sources, software and disk drives, they plan to make their next purchases from thine upstart competitor.

2. Thou shalt not pitch proprietary platforms. Thy customers are hip to digital convergence. They are aware of platform-independent software, and yea, know moreover that any information product can be a platform for any other. Suffereth not thine user to wonder why this app won’t work on that phone, or this phone on that network.

Thy heavy users, world travelers, live “glocal”; they cry, “Roaming charges, my ass!” and “Make thy smart phone a flexible global platform for local apps!” The world is flat, and it is not flat. Surf it.

3. Thou shalt use patents as incentives to innovate – not as tradable securities nor as reserve ammunition for counter-suits.

4. Thou shalt not sue thy customers, without darn good reason. Sony sued a little old Filipina lady of the same name, who ran a hole-in-the-wall Baltimore restaurant called “Sony’s.” Samsung now eats Sony’s lunch, ha ha. Apple is going after a Polish start-up that cleverly leveraged its country’s top-level domain to name itself a.pl. We now read news of Apple’s decline. Suing instead of innovating: Graspeth thou the lesson here?

5. Thou shalt not encase thy products in packaging that is well-nigh bulletproof, exposing thy customers to risk of serious injury when they try to open it.

6. Thou shalt not aim for market dominance at the expense of customer service. Amazon. Cable companies. Dell. Thy clued-in clients recognize a company run for its investors rather than for its customers. Currently powerless to stop you, they hoard and cherish their resentment against the day of their revenge. Canst thou say, “Seeds of mine own destruction”?

Even as thou striveth to control the bottleneck in the value chain, learneth thou that the bottleneck moves and changes faster than thy customers. In the long run, catching and keeping customers is cheaper and of greater value than chasing necks of bottles.

7. Thou shalt not charge more for “ordinary ground shipping” than the price of the item being shipped.

8. Thou shalt not be co-opted by totalitarian governments, nor even authoritarian ones. Giving spy agencies back-doors into your cookies, blocking and censoring for ruling-party political advantage, turning over the records of customers who expected privacy, for shame. In a particular criminal case with a warrant from a legitimate court, maybe. Otherwise, no.

9. Be ever ready to change thy business model. Thou recording-industry exec fighting a desperate rear-guard action, thou art as the dinosaur, ridiculed by thy customers, and incompetent to meet the new business environment on survivable terms.

10. Clean thine own messes. Thy mother told thou this. Get green or get gone.

Taking Headhunters to the Woodshed

I started a new job this spring. After a long search in a tough market, I landed my dream job as a senior professor and administrator at a top research university – a university that did not retain a headhunter for its search.

Talks at other schools had progressed to first or second interviews before fizzling, and they fizzled due to the ineptitude of the universities’ search firms. The headhunters deserve a whipping, and this column administers ten lashes.

Capable academics want to connect with institutions where they can make a positive difference and advance the institutions’ missions. Search firms really desiring to help make these connections should:

1.     Answer every application and every inquiry. You have not answered my letters re the last cool job you posted. I give up on you – I don’t respond to your firm’s most recent posting – and you miss the chance to bring your client a qualified candidate. Too expensive to answer every message, you say? Sorry, this is the business you chose to be in. Act professionally. And join the 21^st century: Most replies can be automated.

2.     Prep search committees for (phone) interviews. The phone interview is a blunt tool, and not many know what it’s for. Few interviewers, either at universities or at search firms, can articulate exactly what they hope to accomplish in a phone interview. Lack of agenda plus the inability to see body language can easily add up to bad impressions on both sides. Coach clients on conducting videoconference and campus interviews too, and assert yourself when necessary. It’s troubling when a committee commits gaffes and illegalities, and doubly so when the supposedly knowledgeable headhunter is right there in the room.

3.     Prep candidates for interviews. Tell us about the culture of the school, whether the search committee are experienced or novices at faculty/administrator searches, who tends to dominate discussions, and whose biases should be watched out for.

4.     Help your client structure the search process and stick to a timeline. You know universities are not good at this. It is what you, as business people, are supposed to bring to the table. So why is it that neither you nor I can name a search that finished on time, at any university?

5.     Keep applicants informed of the progress of the search. Common courtesy, right? But less common than we’d like. And I don’t mean simply calendar progress. If interviewing a few applicants causes the committee (understandably) to change their minds about the kind of candidate they want, tell us that too – before eliminating us from the running or canceling the search. After all, we crafted our cover letters to match the originally advertised criteria. A chance to refocus our letters benefits everybody.

6.     Be there. An on-campus interview for a peach of an administrative post. The headhunter tells me, “Sorry I can’t be there that day. Don’t worry, you’ll do fine.” Turned out there were two faculty factions looking for very different characteristics in a new administrator, and faction members didn’t sport identification badges. I gave what we might call the right answer to a vocal member of the wrong group. Later the headhunter said, “I knew who’s who. If I’d been there we could have handled it together.”

7.     Refrain from writing “this fine institution” when it’s a turnaround job. When your communications are dishonest, you lose the respect of people who know the institution well. You waste time dealing with the wrong kinds of applicants. The purpose of your ad is to attract the right candidates, not to butter up your client. Do you know what candidates call ads that aggrandize client universities? We call them “clues.” (A more general honesty issue: Don’t imply to journalists that, e.g., the three-year average tenure of a dean is due mainly to the job’s increasing pressures. Own up that you and your peers have matched the wrong people with the jobs.)

8.     Send no “do not reply” emails. So disrespectful. Same to you, buddy.

9.     Avoid steering professionals to universities’ “online application systems.” 21^st-century enterprises have AIs that parse well-structured CVs. Seasoned candidates send you well-structured CVs. It’s not that professionals are too stuck-up to deal with the same system used to hire receptionists. It’s just that the irrelevancies and duplicate work the systems demand lead us to expect the same from daily life at that university. A major turn-off.

10.  Remember, candidates are your future clients. As I, and others, move up the ladder and retain search firms on behalf of our universities, we remember who you are and how you behaved when we were candidates.

Headhunters, I’ve thought through how I could have better handled these interviews, and I want you to do the same. If only you knew how often your earnest, helpful, tech-savvy young assistants apologize to candidates for their principals’ (in)actions. Straighten up and fly right during this storm in US higher education. Decide to be part of the solution, not part of the problem.

The Flying Professor -Part II: Before you leave home

Part I listed often-overlooked things that when taken along make your trip comfortable, safe, and productive. Part II looks at tasks you’ll find helpful to do before leaving for the airport. As before, I do not get kickbacks from any products mentioned.

Twelve to 24 hours before departing for places exotic:

• Upload your trip documents (plane, hotel) to TripIt.com. There is a security risk in letting LinkedIn colleagues know where you’re going (TripIt is tied to LinkedIn) – you never know who they’ll tell – but TripIt does automatically inform family and co-workers who need to know where you are and will be. It’s also a single-source repository for all your reservations, itineraries, and receipts, making tax and reimbursement tasks easier later on. And alibis too, I guess.
• I have Snoozester.com send a robotic wake-up call to my bedside phone. Voluntarily getting up ‘n’ at ‘em at 3:30 a.m. is something my biorhythms just don’t let me do. Snoozester will repeat the call as many times as I’ve programmed. I generally choose Snoozester’s “pirate” voice; the sultry female voice doesn’t make me want to get out of bed. I can get additional free wakeup calls if you join as a result of my invitation. So if you want me to get this non-monetary kickback, send me your email address. Otherwise feel free to join directly at Snoozester :o(
• Check the weather at your destination. Weather.com will tell you if it’s unseasonable, raining, etc. Easier then to avoid showing up with a less-than-useful wardrobe.
• Check in for your flight using the airline’s web site. Objectively there’s not much point to this (unless it’s your best chance to choose the seat you want). You’ll still have to go through a rigmarole at the airport. But having the boarding pass in hand before leaving home gives a subjective sense of security, and they know you’re coming. If you’ve booked through airline A and your flight is operated by “partner” airline B, A’s web site won’t necessarily recognize your booking code. The sad truth is that airlines are not airlines any more, they’re just travel agents. The “partnerships” like Star Alliance are not truly integrated; they’ve linked tasks that are convenient for them, not for you. However, single bookings for multiple-carrier itineraries are something of an improvement over the past.
• Charge your cell phones, your computer, and your Kindle. If you’re not first to arrive at your departure gate, early birds will be hogging all the electrical outlets.
• Alert your credit/debit card issuers (and your credit union) that you’re traveling. Most have “travel alert” links on their sites, though they’re not obvious and you may have to go to the site map to find them. A catch is that the banks haven’t always installed the latest country lists in their drop-down menus. (USAA is a culprit, though they of all companies should know better.) You will have to phone the bank if the country you’re going to doesn’t show on the menu. You’ve got enough to do before you leave for Burundi; why go to all this trouble? If you don’t, the bank may assume a charge requested from Burundi is fraudulent; they’ll refuse the charge and start calling your home number to ask whether the card is stolen.
• Record “away messages” (your cellular provider boringly calls these “alternative greetings”) on your office and cell phones. Assuming your US cell phone does not work overseas, as mine does not. My message says I’ll be out of cell phone range, won’t be able to answer v-mail for a week, if you’re okay with that then go ahead and leave me a message, otherwise send me an email, or for immediate help call .
• Dehydration makes everything about traveling so much worse. Unless you enjoy buying bottled water on the concourse (or unless you travel first class, where they’ll bring you liquids at the twitch of your finger), take an empty water bottle and fill it from a drinking fountain or bathroom tap after you’ve passed security. Many airports even in undeveloped countries serve up potable water in their international airports. Caution: Secondary security check agents on US-bound flights may force you to pour out the water before boarding. Always worth a try, though.
• Use Google maps, Mapquest, or Michelin to get and print out directions from your hotel to every person you have an appointment with during your trip. Once at your destination, you may not have time or facilities* to print them. Printed directions are also a check on the honesty of taxi drivers.

* Alternatively, carry a compact thermal printer. They are convenient but need 15v DC input for charging. This is more than they can draw from your laptop’s USB port, so make sure you also have a converter that turns 110 or 220v into 15v with the right polarity. And a roll of thermal paper.

The Flying Professor - Part I: Don't leave home without these

Courses, speeches, and client meetings take me to faraway places, sometimes on short notice. Here are some hard-won tips about this kind of traveling.

Google "packing lists," and you'll find lots of advice about how to fill your entire suitcase. So I won't go there. Instead, this entry, Part I, lists essential items you might not think of. Part II will focus on trip prep – tasks to do before leaving home.

Preliminary note #1: Sometimes the destinations are places with high crime and/or extreme climate.

Preliminary note #2: This list is just from the goodness of my heart (!). I don't know whether the vendors have affiliate programs, and I won't make money if you click through from this blog.

Clothes and shoes

• Travelsmith clothes, for men and women, are good-looking, breathable, immune from wrinkling, usually machine-washable, and have lots of secret pickpocket-resistant pockets.
  
• Rockport walking shoes have steel inserts in the soles, and decent arch support. They are sufficiently rugged for light hiking but clean up well enough for business casual. (Sorry, no walking shoe suggestions for the ladies.)
• 2-tone dress shoes are da bomb. My black-with-brown-trim slip-ons go with brown suits or black suits (or blue or gray, natch), and save me from carrying an extra pair of shoes - or from having to plan, "This trip only gray suits, 'cause I'm only taking black shoes..." Look for them on Shoebuy.com or similar sites, or your local shoe store.
• My Wolf River midweight hiking boots have survived fifteen years of hard use all over the world. Way comfortable. I've only had to replace the laces, though the heel is getting kinda thin now. I've not been able to find these on the web lately :-(
• My Dad told me, always pack swim trunks, they're light and you never know when or where you'll be able to get in a swim. The advice has served me well. And you never know when your hotel will have a nice hot tub next to its pool.
• I think you already know to take layers instead of a bulky coat if you're going somewhere (variably) cold.
  

Software and cloud stuff

• Don't fail to install Prey on your PC or Mac. If your laptop is stolen, its camera will send a picture of the next user to Prey HQ. Yes, computers have been recovered this way!
  
• Of course, put your presentation files on Dropbox. Even if you lose your laptop and all your USB drives, you can still access your file for that important presentation.
  

Hardware

• Going to a country where your US cell phone doesn't work? Buy a Mobal phone. Charges slightly high when you do use the phone, but no monthly charges, nor any other charges, when you do not use the phone. You pay only for calls; this is not one of those deals where you pay for a whole month even if you make only one call. Nice service too, and the phones work in at least 99 countries.
  
• A Kindle. Beats shlepping a pile of books! And keeps you from going nuts when you're hurtling through the air at 30,000 feet for 10-hours in one of those overgrown toothpaste tubes they're pleased to call an "airliner." (Yes, I know Amazon has an affiliate program, but I didn't use it in this link.)
  
• Take an ethernet cord, and one of those double plugs that lets you splice two ethernet cords together. Hotel rooms without wireless may have Internet access through ethernet. However, if they supply a cord at all, it may be too short for you to work comfortably.
  
• Electrical plug converters, natch.
  

Accounts and financials

• Get a credit card featuring "no foreign transaction fees." The Marriott Visa card is a good one, and you accumulate generous Marriott points.
• Carry a folder with all your frequent flyer cards, car rental discount codes, and hotel points program membership cards. Or print out all the numbers on a sheet of paper in your travel file. Reason #1, if your client books your flight, chances are they'll forget to enter your FF#. Reason #2, your travel plans may change - you're re-routed on another airline, or you miss the train and have to rent a car - so have those numbers handy. Oh, yeah, reason #3, if you're a premium member, there's usually a dedicated phone number where you'll get extra good service when you need to change those reservations.
  

Odds 'n' ends

• After I got robbed in Peru, I bought a Magellan's VaultPro Max utility bag. Steel mesh in the strap and bag body mean the bad guys cannot cut through it. The secure shoulder strap is supplemented by a belt clip. Way cool.
  
• Small USA and hometown gifts. I carry t-shirts, fleeces, ball caps, refrigerator magnets, etc.
  
• Carry a spare bag just in case you can't resist shopping. The bag can be ultralight and collapsible, but should have a zipper closure so light-fingered locals can't reach in and snag your souvenirs.
• Take photocopies of your passport. All kinds of possible uses. Allows you to leave the passport in a hotel room safe.
• If you intend to participate in sports, take gauze, medical tape, band aids, ointment, and ibuprofen.

Let me know you find this list helpful. Bon voyage!

The National Debt: Digging deeper into why we’re digging deeper

The US national debt is now at 100% of Gross National Product, in other words equal to what we produce in a year. Forty cents of every dollar the US government spends is borrowed. Horrible, cry the pundits! The government should behave more like a family with a budget, should know when to stop spending!

Let’s consider, though, that the average home-owning family takes on a mortgage equal to two or three times its annual earnings. (Before the crash, this number was five, not two or three.) In the US, it’s common for this family to spend 40% of its monthly income servicing the mortgage debt. So far, then, the government is acting exactly like a family – and a fairly responsible family at that, as we’re not even talking about families that abuse credit cards.

The bank lends to the family because the banker thinks the family will increase its productivity (and thus its income) over time, or at least remain as productive as it is currently. And just in case that turns out not to be true, the banker has built a risk premium into the interest rate on the mortgage.

Someone who panics about the US national debt, then, does not believe in America, does not believe our country will continue its historical trend of ever-increasing productivity. The people who yammer loudest about the national debt are those on the political right – usually the most flag-waving of patriots. What? When push comes to shove, these people do not believe in America after all?

Mysterious. Let’s see what’s behind it.

First, we’ll tie the loose thread I left when I mentioned interest rates. Are lenders gouging the US? If yes, it might be cause for panic. But interest rates are low worldwide following the crash, and lenders know that that if pushed to the wall the US could print more dollars, which are the world reserve currency. So no, interest rates are not the worry. Growth in debt is a legitimate worry, though.

Last night James Baker was on CNN with Fareed Zakariah. Baker said the US is broke, and debtors will colonize us like some banana republic if we don’t reform fiscally. He is wrong. Debtors will colonize us like some banana republic if we don’t get more productive.

In the 1980s Australia was in an economic mess, and the Australian Prime Minister trotted out the banana republic argument. Did Australia go the way of Nicaragua? No, Australia became more productive. Australians innovated and diversified their industries. They became less protectionist about the import and export of goods and people. They created an Oz that is a prosperous magnet for immigration and investment.

Anyway, why would Baker care? He and his – I don’t really want to be inflammatory, but OK, I will use the word fatcat – fatcat cohorts wanted NAFTA, the WTO, and more and more free trade agreements, and they got them. Why did they want them? It wasn’t because economic theory says protectionism (the opposite of free trade) is inefficient. It was so rich corporations and individuals could move (and invest) capital more freely around the world.

This enables them to hedge on taxes and hedge against the risk of the US becoming a banana republic offering low investment returns. That is to say, the fatcat cohorts do not care about America’s future. They don’t have to believe in it. They’ll make money regardless. They have no cause to worry about the US national debt.

I could say, “So much for patriotism,” but that’d be ranting. The right’s rage against national debt appears to be a smoke screen, perhaps a cover for further tax reductions for their super-rich overseers. It also conveniently obfuscates that we had a balanced budget under the Democrat Bill Clinton and that it was blown away by Republican President Shrub. Successful obfuscation might help a Republican presidential candidate in 2012.

In any case, the US does have a budget problem, and it’s more constructive to speak of what can be done about it. Baker told Zakariah it may no longer be in our “national interest” to have troops in Afghanistan. That’s marvelous, a Republican suggesting, however obliquely, a reduction in military spending. It would make a greater contribution to a balanced budget than anything Congress came up with this week.

My progressive friends advocate increasing taxes on the super-rich. Again, this makes a certain amount of sense. However, it does not get to the root of the problem, which is productivity.

The route to increased productivity – which lets us pay down debt – is innovation. We must find a way to induce the super-rich, and even the simply rich, to invest heavily in innovative ventures. Not in gold, not in real estate, but in inventor-entrepreneurs who will bring productivity-enhancing products and services to market. And the best place to make such investments is still the United States.

What form can such inducements take? Not an easy question. Tax credits mean nothing to people and companies that pay zero taxes to begin with. And the super-rich are traditionally more interested in conserving their wealth than in risking it. I invite your bright ideas.

I write from Peru, where we await the outcome of a momentous presidential election. The candidate with the greatest support among the rural and poor, Ollanta Humala, is great friends with Chávez of Venezuela. My educated Peruvian friends, many of whom came from poor families, understand Chávez’ Venezuelan model would be disastrous for Peru. They also understand that when the advantaged class in a highly unequal society does not produce, popular sentiment can propel a far-left candidate to the fore. There’s a lesson here for the United States.

Curmudgeon at Restaurant

The Starbuck’s counterfolks know the only reasonable answer to their “Good morning, how are you?” is “Dunno how I am, haven’t had my coffee yet.” They nod sympathetically.

Restaurants, though, hire people who can cook and handle heavy trays; communication skills are not a job requirement. The following are real things restaurant employees say. After hearing their garbled grammar many times, I’ve fantasized about giving the following responses. Now, don’t y’all try this – it’s certain to result in staff spitting on your food before they bring it from the kitchen. You can share my fantasy, though.

Hostess: “How are you this evening?”

You: “Hungry, duh.”

Hostess: “There’s a short wait. Could I have a name?”

You: “Didn’t your mother give you one?”

Hostess [eventually]: “Your table's ready. Just let me grab you...”

You: “Don't grab me!”

Hostess: “... some menus.”

She seats you. The waiter brings glasses of water and asks for your order. He tries to upsell you: He wants you to have premium gin instead of well gin in your G&T; appetizers; wine; desserts; extra toppings on everything. This is not conducive to the relaxing evening you were hoping to enjoy. You raise an eyebrow.

Knowing his tip is at stake, the waiter is graceful enough to apologize. He reveals that the manager requires him to upsell. You sympathize. Nonetheless, it’s annoying. So,

Waiter: “If you need anything else, my name’s Dave.”

You: “And if we don’t need anything else, then what’s your name?”

Dave: "Oh. Ah, it's still Dave. How would you like your steak served?"

You: "By Salma Hayek, who's wearing a very small bikini, and we're in Hawaii, and..."

Dave: "Not a chance."

You: "Medium, then."

Dave disappears, eventually brings your dinner, disappears again. Knowing his name doesn’t help; you can’t find him.

Dave swings by, asks, "How's everything?"

You: "It's good."

Dave: "Great!!"

You: "Don't escalate it, Dave, I said it's 'good.'"

You know Dave wants to turn over your table, squeeze in one more sitting during his shift, and you wonder why he doesn’t serve you more quickly, which would advance your enjoyment and his income. Finally,

Dave [insincerely]: “No hurry with this bill, any time is OK.”

You: “How about 2015, I hear the economy will bounce back by then.”

Dave: “Ha, ha.” [Pointing at food I have not yet eaten] “Do you wanna box for that?”

You: “No, but I'll wrestle you two falls out of three.”

You lay down a credit card. Dave reaches for it.

Dave: “I’ll take care of that for you.”

You: “That’s really generous of you, Dave, thanks! I thought I was going to have to pay for it!”

At that point, if not before, another guy appears, stands next to your table. He’s probably a restaurant manager, though you don’t know him from Adam. He’s not wearing a uniform or even a name tag, and he doesn’t bother to introduce himself. It’s creepy. I mean, even Dave introduced himself.

Manager: “How is everything, folks?”

You: “It’s all right. Why? Are you considering eating here?”

Manager: “Ha, no, I eat here a lot, ‘cause I work here.”

You: “Oh, well, your vest is so threadbare I thought you were going to ask for our leftovers too.”

Manager [Concerned]: “Did someone ask for them?”

You: “Yeah, Dave wanted to fight me for them.”

Another half hour passes. Dave appears with your credit card receipt. This time he’s all smiles, wishes you a beautiful rest of your evening, makes a big deal out of placing red and white mints on the tray with the credit slip. Dave knows and you know that he knows and he knows that you know that now’s your opportunity to write a tip on the slip…

I greatly enjoy restaurants, just sometimes wish for the traditional silent waitrons who anticipate the diner's every need...

Conscious Manager workshops

I have just posted a brochure describing five 2-hour workshops based on my 2003 book The Conscious Manager: Zen for Decision Makers. The workshops are:

1. Zen for Decision Makers
2. Preventing, Avoiding, and Resolving Conflict
3. Intro to Martial Art for Yoga Practitioners
4. Dreams of Technology
   
5. Quest for the Sword

They are all fun and unusual. If you have or know of an audience interested in these topics, do let me know.

Screwed! But, give hope a chance.

An expansion of my short Facebook post.

To whoever's been sending me these scare-tactic, Tea Party, Palinite “big nanny government impending socialism” emails: Try this exercise.

Think of the last ten organizations that've screwed you over. How many were insurance companies, banks, airlines, the cable company, the cell phone company, the automobile dealer, or the plumber? How many were government agencies? Don't count waiting three hours at the DMV; that's an inconvenience, not a screwing.

If your score is more than 5 private-sector screwings, then put a sock in it, and give Mr. Obama a chance. It could mean government isn't our biggest problem.

No, I don't want to stifle vigorous political debate. That's what “give him a chance” means - you can spit out the sock pretty soon.

In the meantime, realize that the cable companies and banks just love it when bloggers and talk show hosts rant against government. It distracts people so nicely from what the companies
are doing to them.

In fact those companies are paying many of the bloggers and talkers. And the rest are dupes. Score yourself on this “screwed” quiz, and stop being duped.

The Dragons I’ve Eaten: Speculations on the Existence of Human Intelligence

Carl Sagan conjectured that early diurnal mammals feasted on the eggs of nocturnal dinosaurs. He remarked whimsically that a modern breakfast of chicken eggs is among the few relics of our immemorial joust against the dragons. So I think he wouldn’t mind that I spoof his book’s title* for this nonsense column.

When you carve that other relic, the Christmas goose, be sure to ask your physicist guests whether they want light matter or dark matter. Gaah, can you get over the fact that they’ve lost more than 90% of the universe’s mass? (I'll need to lose some mass after holiday eating; maybe they can give me some tips.) “Oh no,” they say, “we’ve just misplaced it.” You reply, simply and politely, “Gravy or cranberry sauce?” (Your subtext being, “Or bullshit?”)

Speaking of cosmology (were we?), the just-out second book by the author of The Time Traveler’s Wife is, according to reviewers, not as good as the first. I wondered what the big deal was anyway. I travel into the future at the rate of about one day per day, and so do you. Some people don’t keep up, of course; the glaze in some of my students’ eyes is a giveaway. Then there are people who don’t twitter. Obviously “behind the times,” time-traveling at maybe 0.9 days per day.

Ah, you say, but what about going back in time? I can do that too, and my wife can verify it. Yesterday I left our house in the morning, headed for the university, but, because she insisted, I went back in time for dinner!

* Carl Sagan, The Dragons of Eden: Speculations on the Evolution of Human Intelligence. Random House, 1977,

On cold calling, and asking a girl to dance

Question posted on a social network: “I need to make cold calls in order to find a new job. I can’t make myself do it. How can I get over my fear of rejection?”

I had similar fears. (A long time ago!) A teacher asked me bluntly, “What the hell are you protecting?” I was OK after that.

Let me tell you what the teacher meant.

You can treat your ego like a new Porsche. So fearful of dings, bumps and scratches that you never drive it anywhere. If you do drive, you park at the edge of the lot, far away from your Porsche’s fellow automobiles. Or straddle two parking slots.

So. You never get any errands done, you never get the pleasure of driving the open road, you annoy people instead of constructively engaging with them, and you wonder why you spent all that money.

The first scratch on that Porsche is such a treasure! You don’t have to worry any more about getting that first scratch. Now you can enjoy your car.

OK, enough with the car analogy. Now we’re talking about your ego. What aspect of your self-regard is so precious that not bumping it is more important than getting a job? What part of it is so fragile that knocking it around will shatter it and prevent you from functioning? What part of it is so valuable that you’re tempted to spend a lonely life cherishing it, foregoing the pleasures of social interaction?

For 99% of us who are past high school age, the answer is “no part of it.” In no way is ego maintenance more precious than reaching out to other people.

It may take considerable introspection before you can fully realize this truth, within your own personality and life situation. But once you have realized it, everything becomes easier. Job hunting, meeting girls, meeting guys, asking the boss for a raise, making sales calls.

See my book The Conscious Manager: Zen for Decision Makers for more details.

Co-Blog

I have started blogging also at ScientificBlogging.com.

Most management-related items will continue to appear here. If you're interested in the more scientific stuff, please check out the link above. Thanks.

Apollo 11: What a difference an A makes

It’s 40 years this week since the Apollo astronauts landed on the moon. Analysis of the tapes shows that Neil Armstrong did say “small step for a man” – and not “small step for man” – though he said the “a” quickly and radio static obscured it.

As my small contribution to the space program, I’ll confirm that this can happen.

Evidence comes from a ski trip in Utah. After a day on the slopes, my sister’s family and mine repaired to a barbecue joint in downtown Park City. A waiter pushed three tables together to accommodate our group of nine.

As we enjoyed our meal, my niece Lara, then 18 years old, decided she wanted something. (What she wanted is lost to history; you’ll see why in a moment.) She walked over to her father’s place at the table and commenced to wheedle him. Playing the little girl, she sat in my brother-in-law’s lap and whispered in his ear.

At that moment, the maitre d’, not knowing they were father and daughter, passed by and remarked, “Do y’all need a room?” He said the “a” quickly, and general restaurant noise obscured it.

Hearing “Do y’all need room?,” brother-in-law replied, “No thanks, we’ve pushed some tables together.”

My sister was aghast. The other children were gagging themselves.

This has become a “family story,” recounted every Thanksgiving when we get together.

So there. It can happen.

An Exercise in Hidden Symbols

South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford tricked his wife with the phrase “hiking the Appalachian Trail.” She, and we, now know it meant “shagging the Argentinian lover.”

The (apparently) many who are still astonished by the common hypocrisy of family-values Republican officials didn’t (apparently) read my blog on why, from a primatological point of view, it’s not astonishing at all.

But ours is a nation, and theirs is a party, where denial of human evolution is also common. Maybe that’s why we are loath to learn from primatology.

I’m curious. Where and who is the third woman? That is to say, Sanford’s complex love life includes Mrs. Sanford, the Argentinian cutie, and who?

The hidden symbol: Make an acronym of Hiking the Appalachian Trail, and you get HAT. If you don’t know what a hat trick is, Google it. There’s a third woman somewhere.

Now let’s think about Sarah Palin’s unexplained (at least, unexplained to anyone’s satisfaction) resignation as Governor of Alaska. No, I don’t think Sanford and Sarah were getting it on together. Yet Sanford’s affair finished him as governor, and Letterman had just lampooned the mating practices of the Palin family. Did Sarah resign to pre-empt discovery of, or fallout from, hanky-panky of her own?

People who won’t believe they are related to monkeys seem uncommonly eager to make monkeys of themselves.

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Sostenibilidad

Last night's commencement address at PUCP-Lima:

Queridos profesores, graduandos, padres de familia, amigos y huéspedes distinguidos.

Me place tener la oportunidad de felicitar a los graduandos y sus familias. Deseo decir que admiro las características de esta generación de graduandos. Ustedes jóvenes van a cambiar el mundo. Sus padres han trabajado duro para construir una vida cómoda para ellos mismos y para ustedes. Asi que también yo deseo que mis queridos graduandos tengan una vida cómoda. Pero ustedes van a abandonar el materialismo comprensible de sus padres, para servir el planeta y construir un futuro sostenible. Quiero ahora decir unas palabras sobre el tema de sostenibilidad.

Sostenibilidad. No hay una definición exacta. Probablemente no la reconocería si la viera. Debe ser una buena cosa, sin embargo. Pero algunos puntos de vista sobre la sostenibilidad son preocupantes, como se ve en estos tres ejemplos:

El decano eminente de una escuela de la ciencia ambiental hizo un sonido vulgar cuando le preguntaron sobre la sostenibilidad. Él contestó que la noción de sustentabilidad parece ir en contra de la segunda ley de la termodinámica. En otro extremo están los que desean reducir al mínimo el impacto de la gente en el planeta. Su subtexto implica la reducción al mínimo del número de gente en el planeta. Y en aún otro extremo están los economistas como Robert Solow, que creen que todo es sostenible, porque el mecanismo del precio modera substituciones de los insumos.

Sospecho que el decano tiene una vision demasiado literal, y también sospecho que los abogados de la tierra odian a la gente. Los teóricos económicos continúan ignorando los efectos externos que crean los problemas ambientales en el primer lugar.

También tengo que decir a Profesór Solow que no hay sustituto para el agua, por ejemplo, ni habrá en el futuro próximo; el agua no es como otros insumos económicos. (Incidente­mente, mis estudiantes creen que la cerveza es un sustituto para el agua. Es una lástima que esta idea tan atractiva no es práctica.)

¿Hay un punto medio entre estos extremos, que sea constructivo y científicamente factible?

Nada de lo que hacemos es sostenible en el largo plazo. Dependemos de la energía solar (como el decano, sin duda, estaba pensando). El sol durará por millones de años. Mientras tanto, sin embargo, cada proceso social degrada la energía.

• “Sostenible” no puede significar simplemente “estático,” lo que significa el fin de la innovación, y el comienzo de la reglamentación excesiva en todos los ámbitos de la vida. El cambio climático (la parte que no es antropogénica) continuará en cualquier caso, y la sociedad y la ecología tendrían que cambiar y adaptarse.

• ¿Puede el termino "sostenible" significar "capaz de evolucionar de una manera constante y manejable?" No. Siempre hay Cisnes Negros, los imprevistos. El calentamiento global es sólo un ejemplo, y es uno que es más previsible que la mayoría.

• Los pensadores y los activistas impulsan a las compañias asistir no sólo a sus impactos financieros, pero también a sus impactos en la gente y en el ambiente. La “triple línea de base” - las personas, los beneficios, y el planeta – puede ser ésta sostenible? Pues, todos nosotros podemos adorarnos uno al otro, y vivir con poco impacto en el planeta, y aún ser golpeadas por un asteroide delincuente. Sólo a través de la tecnología podemos aspirar a reducir la probabilidad o las consecuencias de una colisión con un asteroide. Mejor tecnología facilitará este efecto. Una sociedad que no crea ninguna tecnología nueva, no es sostenible a largo plazo.

• A pesar de que muchas de las economías de subsistencia han durado cientos de años, y han sido interpretados por los escritores como nobles y felices, no podemos equiparar los regímenes de subsistencia con la sostenibilidad. Sin excedentes y "back-up," por ejemplo, tales economías son vulnerables a los cambios ambientales.

Sí que algunas de estas consideraciones pueden sugerir un futuro oscuro e incierto. Sin embargo, si traemos a ellos el optimismo, el aprendizaje y la habilidad de gestión simbolizado por esta feliz noche de graduación, haremos un futuro brillante.

¿En qué escala de tiempo es realista hablar de sostenibilidad? ¿Cuales son los límites de cambio, en los que estamos dispuestos a decir que un sistema ha sido "sostenido"? Un número impresionante de fuentes coinciden que el tiempo realista son unas pocas generaciones. El Club de la Ciudad de Portland, el Consejo Presidental Sobre el Desarrollo Sostenible, Seattle Sostenible y otros dicen "para las generaciones venideras," "las generaciones presentes y futuras," "nuestros hijos y nietos." Esta opinión deja un margen razonable para modificar el plan cuando cambian las condiciones tecnológicas o ambientales.

Naturalmente, las investigaciones forenses revelarán algunos de los culpables en el cambio climático antropogénico. Pero el excoriado oficial de los Estados Unidos que dije que el clima va a cambiar con nosotros o sin nosotros, y que nuestro gran reto es la adaptación, estaba acertado. Debemos preocuparnos menos sobre identificar a los culpables, y más sobre mejorar e inventar estrategias de adaptación.

No creo que estas estrategias de adaptación pueden basarse totalmente en la medición y la valoración de los efectos externos. (Los intercambios de los derechos de carbono han sido escándalosos.) La privatización del servicio municipal del agua es contencioso. Si usted la encuentra preocupante, considere esta posibilidad más extrema: Usted exhala dióxido de carbono al respirar ... En un futuro desafortunado, ¿Vamos a tener que "pagar por respirar"? Tendremos que ser muy cuidadosos en el diseño de los regímenes sostenibles que no están basadas en los precios. Pero tendremos que diseñarlos.

De todos modos, la sostenibilidad es más viable como concepto cuando se define vagamente. En cualquier caso, no podemos predecir con certeza el impacto de un accion empresarial sobre las personas o sobre el planeta mejor que podemos prever el impacto de una actividad empresarial sobre las utilidades financieras. (Piense sobre una llamada de ventas a un cliente potencial, que puede o no comprar su producto.) En primer lugar, no sabemos suficiente la ciencia aplicable. En segundo lugar, la complejidad de las cuestiones ambientales, médicas, psicológicas y de predicción de fenómenos lo hace propenso a errores. En tercer lugar, los impactos sobre las personas, sobre los beneficios, y sobre el planeta van a interactuar el uno contra el otro!

Muy complejo, de hecho. Pero sus padres superaron los desafíos complejos y peligrosos también – la depresión económica, el nazismo, la amenaza de la guerra nuclear - y ustedes superarán el desafío de la sostenibilidad.

Como ustedes han deducido de mis observaciones, la superación de este desafío requerirá la innovación y la claridad del pensamiento - que ustedes aprendieron en sus estudios de MBA - y la resolución fuerte, que se debe hallar dentro de ustedes mismos. Ustedes están bien preparados. Expreso confianza en ustedes, y enhorabuena. Muchas gracias.

Odd Bits: Republicans and Credit Cards

Chronicle of Higher Education headline: “NEW TOP REPUBLICAN ON HOUSE PANEL: WASHINGTON DOESN'T ALWAYS KNOW BEST. In his position on the education committee, Rep. John Kline of Minnesota says he will be guided by skepticism of government's role in higher education.”

In what other industry could you be paid – not fired – for publicly dissing your own job? Mr. Kline, you were sent to Washington to govern, so do your best at governing and quit whining.

In related news… Sarah Palin has stepped down as Alaska’s Governor. She has advanced the Republican goal of smaller government by taking herself off the payroll. Gotta admire that integrity.

How about those companies that want to renew your account in future years by automatically charging your credit card? Just try to cancel that arrangement. “No, sir, we can’t do that by phone, you’ll have to send a registered letter.” “Sorry, we can’t do that on this customer service line, you’ll have to call this special number” (which of course is not answered). Or you’re sent to a phone menu hell in which you can’t cancel without listening to 20 minutes of pitch for other products.

No, that’s not for me. I was happy with Mozy’s free file backup for my home computer, until I filled up the free storage limit. The paid version is cheap enough, offers megabytes galore, but is only available by automatic credit card renewal. No way. So I subscribed to IDrive, which backs me up every night and it’s pay as you go and so far so good.

Regulating the card lenders

Received this letter dated May 2, 2009:

Dear Fred Phillips:

As your credit card company, we value your business and appreciate the opportunity to service your financial needs.

In a recent review of your account, we noticed that you have only used a limited amount of your credit line with us. We believe this may indicate that the line may be higher than required to meet your monthly spending needs and, as a result, your credit line has been changed to $**,***.00.

Chase is committed to maintaining the highest levels of customer satisfaction and we are always looking for ways to improve our products and services. If this change does not meet your current needs or you have questions about this change, please call us at 1-800-346-5538 and one of our advisors can assist you further.

Sincerely, 

Cardmember Services

...to which I reply via this blog:

Dear Chase,

Due to your unexplained and seemingly random - but ever increasing - fees, and your abrupt reductions in service, I do not consider you a trusted lender. That is why I do not borrow money from you. And won't, if I can avoid it.

Incidentally, I opened this account with a bank that you later acquired. I never asked to borrow money from you, so don't you dare condescend to me.

Best wishes,

Fred Phillips

Crossing Over

In 2007, for the first time, the majority of human beings lived in cities.

In 2008, the U.S. overtook France as the world's leading wine-drinking nation.  

In 2009, for the first time, more people worldwide used the Internet for social networking than for email. 

I’ve amassed a big collection of such “crossovers” here, with the sources for each. Why? Well, it has always been thought that these points are rather uninteresting; Modis and others showed that chaos can manifest at the beginning and end of an s-shaped growth curve, but that the middle – where these crossovers occur – are as steady and predictable as the day is long.

Hwang, Limprayoon and I will soon submit a paper showing that in many cases, these bland crossover points mask a true tipping point. It is the point where resistance to change – and the people who are influenced by the resistance – become a minority phenomenon. Innovation diffusion really is “touch and go” all the way to the midpoint.

Don’t care about that? Visit the collection anyway. The crossovers are fun to read, and the sheer number of them says volumes about our changing society.

Use the blog’s Comment area to let me know of other interesting crossovers you might be aware of.

A billion out of poverty

Not to beat the dead horse of unfettered free markets (wow, did I mangle a metaphor, or what), but Joe Rightwing is still looking on Constitution Avenue, not on Wall Street, for the crooks who caused the global financial crisis. In the years since Reagan and Thatcher, Joe brays, a billion people have been lifted from poverty. A triumph of free-market capitalism! Let’s overlook the little matter of a worldwide banking crisis!

The purpose of today’s blog is just to point to one fact: Most of the billion who recently waved bye-bye to poverty are Chinese.

That’s right. Not citizens of a market democracy, not denizens of the sub-Saharan developing world, not even Russians enduring the Al Capone style pre-capitalism we Americans got through eighty years ago. Chinese. Chinese who live in the most regulated, government-owns-everything nation on Earth.

Not that I’d want to live there. And I don't begrudge. Just making a point. What do you say to that, Joe?

And oh, by the way, the number of U.S. residents living in poverty rose from about 23 million in 1973 to 36.5 million in 2006. The percent of Americans in poverty has remained constant at 12.3 percent over the same interval. Write to me if you’re curious about source for these data.

Stimulus package and the “American” automobile industry

Will the stimulus package save the “American” automobile industry? Professors Jay Heizer and Barry Render write that the cost of a Pontiac LeMans breaks down this way:

“About $6,000 heads to South Korea for the auto’s assembly; $3,500 goes to Japan for engines, axles, and electronics; $1,500 goes to Germany for design; $800 goes to Taiwan, Singapore, and Japan for smaller parts; $500 heads to England for marketing; $100 goes to Ireland for information technology; and the rest, about $7,600, goes to GM and its US bankers, insurance agents, and attorneys.”

In other words, the LeMans is barely American at all.

So why are GM and Chysler coming to our US government with hat in hand? Why don’t they demand handouts from the governments of Korea or Ireland? For that matter, why aren’t Ireland and Taiwan stepping up to hand billions to GM?

Actually, the German government is opening talks with GM’s local subsidiary, Opel, and the talks might lead to a bailout. So I can’t in fairness go all righteously indignant about that.

But I can reasonably be snarky about this: GM wanted all this globalization that led to the bleeding away of American jobs. If they’re in trouble now, why don’t they whine gimme-gimme to their precious World Trade Organization? A fine thing, to use WTO to marginalize the Congress and sovereignty of the United States - and then tell Congress they might or might not pay on Tuesday for a hamburger today.

In 1971, I worked for General Motors as a Junior Mathematician. (Yes, you read that right.) Never have I met people so out of touch with ordinary Americans. They had plans to build a car with windows that couldn’t be opened – only a slot to pay tolls through. They put our orientation group on buses to move us to another building 40 yards away; we trainees looked at each other in disbelief. It astonishes me that it took them another thirty years to go bankrupt.

When Toyota and Nissan became the quality leaders, GM said what me worry, Americans will buy American cars just because they’re American cars, doesn’t matter if they’re not very good cars. And GM was right – for a while. You can draw many messages from this story, but one of them is: Americans have already given GM their bailout, and GM blew it. Time to pack it in, General Motors.